United Futures port stocks rebounded palm prices fall demonophobia

Guolian Futures: port stocks rise since palm clients view the latest market prices fell in May, the palm oil market appeared anti seasonal strong performance – whether it is the absolute price or price futures 1-9. The price of the stock from the port abnormal change rapidly due to the 2016 El Nino led to Malaysia, Indonesia rainfall significantly reduced, the new season yield fell cliff, drag the main producing areas of inventory level is the lowest in 3 years, the river port stocks plunged to a 5 year low, the price of a new 2 – year high. Figure 1: Zhangjiagang palm oil prices and domestic port inventory data source: Wind  Guolian futures research department the author believes that with the port stocks rise and the substitute consumption limit, palm oil prices peaked down cycle will continue for about two months. A transaction and risk, 1.1 rainfall yield accelerated recovery according to our weather monitoring, since mid June in Malaysia and Indonesia palm oil producing area, rainfall is abundant, is of great help to enhance the yield of palm. Although the short-term drought appeared in August, but due to the early September rainfall, cumulative rainfall is still very abundant. Is expected in the next 3 months, Malaysia’s inventory levels will be a rapid rebound, which led to the recovery of domestic port stocks. Figure 2:6 month since mid palm oil producing areas of accumulated rainfall data sources: NOAA  Guolian futures R & D Figure 3: Malaysia palm oil production and exports, inventory data source: wind Guolian futures research department 1.2 beans brown spot approaching the history of extreme   palm oil consumption is limited as of September September, Zhangjiagang soybean brown spot price has fallen to a new low of nearly 8 years. According to traders reflect the current high price of palm oil market, the substitution effect of brown beans in the procurement level significantly. Can be judged, if there is no big difference in spot price correction, palm oil consumption will be further restricted, which will further accelerate the recovery of palm oil stocks. Figure 4: Zhangjiagang bean brown spot spread data source: USDA  Guolian Futures Research Department of     1.3 U.S. listed near   high oil soybean oil stocks, according to the USDA8 report, the United States to maintain high yield of soybean in good weather, production of a new high, then Lagaoben world soybean ending stocks climbing second to the historical high of 73 million tons. During October 9, the U.S. soybean market, soybean oil prices have showed weaker shocks probability is very high, which will suppress the performance of palm oil. Figure 5: global soybean inventory data sources: USDA  United futures research and Development Department     as of September 9th, the domestic soybean oil business inventories of 1 million 186 thousand and 100 tons, a record high of 2 years. Figure 6: spot beans brown spreads data sources: United futures research and Development Department     1.4 short brown.相关的主题文章: